Thai PM Face-Off: Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s Survival Hangs by a Thread
BANGKOK — Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s political future is in peril as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on her controversial audio tape with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.
Low Odds for Survival
A Japanese diplomat recently met with a Thai political insider, who assessed her chance of survival at just 35%. The evaluation was based on the July 1 vote in which judges suspended her duties as prime minister 7 to 2.
Even the two minority votes, while sympathetic to her continuation, believed some issues — especially regarding national security and foreign policy — warranted suspension.
The Achilles’ Heel
The tape contains statements that may seal her fate. Notably, she told Hun Sen: “The Second Army Region Commander is on the opposite side” and “Whatever you want, just say the word.” These lines are being cited as evidence against her.
Deferment Denied
The insider noted that if Paetongtarn were confident, she would not have requested a six-month deferment, which the court rejected today. Observers interpret this as a sign of weakness — giving her opponents the sense they can ‘smell the blood.’
Historical Precedent
Past rulings have generally not favored top politicians, including former PMs Srettha Thavisin and Yingluck Shinawatra, as well as opposition figures Pita Limjaroenrat and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
Countdown to the Verdict
The Constitutional Court has set August 29 — just two weeks away — for the final decision, leaving Paetongtarn’s political survival hanging by a thread.
