The recent slowdown in China’s outbound travel has begun to bite into Thailand’s tourism earnings, with official data showing notable drops in arrivals and receipts through much of 2025. While Thailand still welcomed millions of visitors in the first eight months and the numbers remain substantial on paper, the falloff from key markets has exposed vulnerabilities in an industry that is a cornerstone of the country’s economy.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports’ figures for the January–August period and for September underline the scale of the challenge: fewer visitors from China and Malaysia have translated into lower overall revenue, prompting officials and analysts to talk about diversification and big hopes for the upcoming high season.
China Slowdown Shaves Millions Off Thai Tourism
Thailand recorded 21.88 million international arrivals between January and August, a 7.16% decline from the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Receipts slipped 5.4% to 1.014 trillion baht, a material drop given tourism’s outsized contribution to spending and jobs across the country.
A large share of the shortfall has been tied to China’s weaker outbound travel. China accounted for 3.09 million arrivals in that January–August window, well down year-on-year, and Malaysia—Thailand’s other major feeder—contributed 3.04 million, also sharply lower. Those two markets alone removed millions of potential visitors from the national tally, directly affecting accommodation, retail and transport revenues.
Revenue Drops as Chinese, Malaysian Visitors Fall
September intensified the pressure: the ministry reported just 2.58 million visitors for the month, a 12.81% fall compared with September last year. China again led inbound numbers with 409,691 arrivals, followed by Malaysia at 391,777 and India at 190,604, but the month’s aggregate decline underscored a broader softening in short-haul regional travel.
The composition of arrivals matters for receipts as well as headcounts. Although markets such as India and Russia have shown growth or resilience, the missing volume from China and Malaysia—both major contributors to package tours, shopping and short-stay tourism—has a disproportionate impact on daily spending and seasonally important revenue streams for hotels, islands and urban retail districts.
Thailand’s Heavy Reliance Exposed by Market Shifts
The data laid bare how reliant Thailand remains on a handful of source markets. Officials have acknowledged the vulnerability: sudden shifts in outbound preferences or economic conditions in China and Malaysia can quickly translate into weaker national numbers, a point observers cited in coverage by The Nation when discussing the ministry’s analysis.
At the same time, other markets have provided bright spots. India supplied 1.56 million visitors in the January–August period, ranking third, while Russia sent 1.19 million and South Korea just over 1 million. Secondary and long-haul markets—Japan (712,158), the UK (708,929), the US (692,212), Taiwan (672,067) and Laos (630,051)—also figure into the mix, suggesting that a more diversified market strategy could blunt future shocks.
Ministry Pushes Diversification and High Season Hopes
In response to the downturn, the government has rolled out measures aimed at diversifying source markets and encouraging higher per-visitor spending, from targeted promotions to incentives for longer stays and niche tourism products. Industry analysts have urged intensified campaigning in India, Russia and emerging Middle Eastern markets as practical near-term levers to make up some of the lost Chinese and Malaysian volume.
Authorities are also counting on the approaching High Season to help stabilize receipts, with expectations that long-haul visitors from Europe and North America will increase bookings and spending. While those hopes are realistic, officials and hoteliers alike acknowledge that a sustained recovery will depend on both attracting new markets and adapting products to capture more value from each visitor.
The slump in arrivals from China and Malaysia has shaved millions from Thailand’s tourism coffers and brought into sharp relief the risks of market concentration. With policy shifts toward diversification and the seasonal boost of the High Season ahead, recovery is possible—but it will require sustained effort to broaden Thailand’s appeal and to turn visitor numbers into resilient, higher-value tourism revenue.
